Forecasting Landscape Settings Conducive to Site Burial
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چکیده
U the spatial distribution of geological deposits that are capable of containing buried and relatively intact archaeological sites is important for archaeological research and CRM (Eckerle et al. 2000; Horne et al. 2001; Monaghan and Lovis 2005; Stafford 1995). This chapter describes a methodology for modeling and visualizing large landscapes in a way that forecasts settings with potential to contain buried, in situ archaeological sites. Landscape segments that possess high potential for preserving buried sites are considered “sensitive.” When these landscape segments are in danger from development or erosion, they are characterized as being “at risk.” Although this study uses modelbuilding methods that are common in the sciences, we use the term “forecast model” or “forecast” instead of “predictive model” to describe the results. A “predictive model” implies fairly precise knowledge of all of the phenomena under study, perhaps including its underlying causes. A “forecast,” on the other hand, suggests knowledge that may be less certain and is likely to vary over time or space in unpredictable ways. While the difference may seem trivial to those frequently using models of natural and cultural phenomena, lessinformed readers tend to put too much faith in the accuracy of a predictive model. Calling the same model a forecast carries with it the notion of uncertainty about the model’s perfection and thus the implication that future work may achieve a better forecast.
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